Disclosure is at the heart of the U.S. securities laws, and of all the information that can be disclosed, the most important are the risks associated with the investment. That’s why every disclosure document, from the most humble Private Placement Memorandum to the most extensive S-1, includes a list of risk factors.
Some risks are general: the risk that the business might be affected by another pandemic. Some are technical: the risk that our new technology might not work. Some are legal: the risk that our product infringes on a patent that belongs to someone else.
Whatever their political persuasion, lawyers who draft disclosure documents should now include risks associated with the new Administration. Different businesses will be subject to different risks, but here is a partial list:
- Risk of Higher Inflation and Interest Rates: The new Administration has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and is threatening tariffs on other allies, including the European Union. According to economists, the cost of tariffs will fall on American consumers, raising prices for a large number of goods and thereby fueling inflation. At the same time, the Administration is proposing large tax cuts funded by higher federal budget deficits, which will also contribute to inflation. The Federal Reserve has struggled to bring inflation down to its 2% target, and these policies will likely lead to interest rates h igher than they would have been otherwise.
- Risk of Labor Shortages: The new Administration is cracking down on undocumented immigrants, seeking to deport millions by force. Undocumented immigrants make up approximately 40% of the American agricultural labor market, approximately 15% – 25% of the housing labor market, and approximately 20% of the food services labor market, among others. The absence of these workers would cause acute shortages, leading to higher prices and scarcity.
- Risk of Future Pandemics: The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was devastating for many industries and for the American economy as a whole. The new Administration is populated by “vaccine skeptics,” chief among them Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who has propagated misinformation not only about COVID vaccines but about vaccines of all kinds, claiming without evidence that childhood vaccines cause autism and opposing vaccines for illnesses ranging from measles to polio. As the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Mr. Kennedy has already taken action against vaccine research, just as the Administration is defunding scientific research generally. These actions increase the risk of another pandemic.
- Risks to Agricultural Sector: The American agricultural sector depends heavily on exports, including exports to China. With China now retaliating against the Administration’s tariffs, and the possible loss of almost half its workforce, the agricultural sector could face severe impacts.
- Risks to Housing Sector: The American housing industry contributes approximately $1.2 trillion annually, or about 4.5% of America’s gross domestic product. Tariffs imposed on Canadian exports, retaliation by Canada and other countries, increases in interest rates caused by Administration policies, and the possible loss of approximately 20% of its workforce could damage the housing sector severely.
- Risks Associated with Government Closures: The new Administration has slashed some government spending, including spending mandated by Congress, in ways that could disrupt the economy or specific industries. For example, in the weeks that followed a fatal midair collision near Reagan National Airport, the Administration announced a reduction in funding for the Federal Aeronautics Administration, which controls flight safety. These cuts could lead to more travel delays and possibly more fatalities, which would have negative effects on the economy.
- Risk of Government Action Concerning DEI Initiatives: The new Administration has moved aggressively against initiatives favoring “diversity, equity, and inclusion.” A project that relies on federal funding for any such initiatives will be affected adversely.
- Risk of Climate Change: Climate change (aka “global warming”) caused by human activity is already imposing costs and risks for the American economy, including unusual and unpredictable storms, droughts, and other weather-related events. The new Administration has moved aggressively against initiatives to address climate change, like alternative energy, removing mention of “climate change” from government websites, and defunding the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in favor of carbon-based energy. These actions will increase the rate of global warming and the associated risks.
- Risks of Legal and Economic Uncertainty: The new Administration has announced that it will not enforce laws it does not like, such as the Tik-Tok ban, while also putting in the hands of the White House decisions that have historically been made by administrative agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Administration has also reversed itself on important issues like tariffs, then reversed the reversals. Economic and legal uncertainty can create a climate where businesses are reluctant to invest, increasing the cost of capital and adding to overall economic risks.
- Risk of Economic Disruption from Tariffs: Facing a deepening depression, the administration of Herbert Hoover signed into the law the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs on imported goods. That statute is widely regarded as having worsened, or even caused, the Great Depression by stifling international trade. The steep tariffs imposed by the new Administration could have a similar effect, or even worse. World economies are far more connected today than they were in 1930. Everything from iPhones to automobiles are made not just in one country but in many. Canada, Mexico, and China have all announced plans to retaliate against the U.S., and a series of tit-for-tat actions could unravel the free trade networks that have been at the foundation of economic growth for 80 years. Any such disruption increases the risk of recession, if not worse.
- Risks of Recession: Consumer sentiment has dropped while expectations for future inflation have risen, even before consumers feel the impact of higher prices caused by tariffs. The yield on the 10-year treasury bill has also fallen on fears of recession. Labor shortages, higher prices, disruptions to supply chains, the possible scarcity of goods, and economic uncertainty could combine to create a recession, which would adversely affect most businesses.
The purpose of the “Risks of Investing” is to alert prospective investors to risks and thereby reduce the chance of a successful investor lawsuit after the fact. Lawyers will have to decide on a project-by-project basis whether these and other policy-related risks should be disclosed. Few, if any, businesses will go unscathed.
Questions? Let me know.